Sat, May 2 2026 • 12:00 •
Sportpark Heimstetten
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.69)
1.64 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.2% | 23.4% | 39.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
1 - 2
8.5%
2 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Kirchanschöring | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Heimstetten | 0 | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Heimstetten carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Heimstetten +23.7, Kirchanschöring -22.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Heimstetten
vs
Kirchanschöring
Elo gapHeimstetten +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3106.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.3
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1544.7 | 1561.6 |
| Form Elo | 1574.1 | 1546.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536 | 1521.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1713 | 1622.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1427.3 | 1556 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +23.7 | -22.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Heimstetten last-5 Elo change: +23.7; Kirchanschöring last-5 Elo change: -22.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 33% |
| Attack | 77% | 38% |
| Defense | 77% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 47% | 48% | 53% | 36% | 45% |
| Draws | 36% | 20% | 28% | 40% | 29% | 34% |
| Loses | 14% | 33% | 24% | 7% | 36% | 21% |
HeimstettenDDDLDLDWWWLWWLLWLWLWWWDWDWDWW
KirchanschöringDDWWWWWDLDLDWWWLWDWLDWDWDWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 28 | 59 | 36 | 23 | 59 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 18 | 19 | 37 | 14 | 17 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 72% | 72% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 38% | 55% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 14% | 38% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 28% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 7% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-6 | 5-1 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Heimstetten | Kirchanschöring |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 62.7% | 37.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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