Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 17:30 •
Sportanlage Waldeck
Expected Goals
1.34 (league 1.95)
2.40 (league 1.72)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.9% | 18.8% | 57.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
7.6%
1 - 3
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| VfR Neumünster | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eutiner SV | 0 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
VfR Neumünster carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Eutiner SV +3.8, VfR Neumünster +24.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Eutiner SV
vs
VfR Neumünster
Elo gapVfR Neumünster +68
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo2971.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2971.1
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1434.2 | 1536.9 |
| Form Elo | 1433.5 | 1547.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.3 | 1521.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1399.6 | 1573.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1363.6 | 1461.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.8 | +24.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Eutiner SV last-5 Elo change: +3.8; VfR Neumünster last-5 Elo change: +24.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 87% |
| Attack | 29% | 76% |
| Defense | 53% | 76% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 33% | 7% | 19% | 62% | 50% | 56% |
| Draws | 17% | 29% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 12% |
| Loses | 50% | 64% | 58% | 23% | 42% | 32% |
Eutiner SVWLLLWDWLLLDLLLDWLLDLDLDWLL
VfR NeumünsterWWLWWWLLLWWWLWLLWLDDWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 11 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 55 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 21 | 35 | 56 | 20 | 24 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 54% | 92% | 96% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 65% | 72% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 31% | 44% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 12% | 8% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eutiner SV | VfR Neumünster |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 24% | 76% |
| Att | 28% | 72% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 35% | 65% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 38.3% | 61.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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