Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Sportanlage FSV Stadeln
Expected Goals
2.80 (league 1.73)
1.79 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.6% | 17.4% | 22.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.1%
3 - 1
6.7%
2 - 2
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
| ATSV Erlangen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Stadeln | 0 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
ATSV Erlangen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Stadeln -47.5, ATSV Erlangen +5.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Stadeln
vs
ATSV Erlangen
Elo gapATSV Erlangen +23
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2846.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2846.7
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1394.4 | 1452.3 |
| Form Elo | 1350.1 | 1445.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1471.5 | 1458 |
| Attack Elo | 1464.2 | 1453.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1314.8 | 1392.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -47.5 | +5.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Stadeln last-5 Elo change: -47.5; ATSV Erlangen last-5 Elo change: +5.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 27% |
| Attack | 30% | 35% |
| Defense | 25% | 45% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 21% | 32% | 47% | 21% | 34% |
| Draws | 7% | 7% | 7% | 27% | 14% | 21% |
| Loses | 50% | 71% | 61% | 27% | 64% | 45% |
StadelnWLWWWLWWWLLWLLLWLDLDLLLLLLLL
ATSV ErlangenWDWWDLWWDLLLWDWLWLLLLLDWLLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 11 | 40 | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 33 | 28 | 61 | 22 | 32 | 54 |
| GA avg | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 79% | 76% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 71% | 41% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 29% | 7% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 21% | 3% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 14% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 4-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 6-0 | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Stadeln | ATSV Erlangen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 50.0% | 50.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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