Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:15 •
Stadion am Deininger Weg
Expected Goals
1.58 (league 1.72)
0.99 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.6% | 25.2% | 23.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.1%
1 - 1
12.0%
2 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Gebenbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ASV Neumarkt | 0 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.0% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
ASV Neumarkt carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ASV Neumarkt -40.5, Gebenbach +11.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
ASV Neumarkt
vs
Gebenbach
Elo gapASV Neumarkt +21
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2996.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2996.1
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1490.9 | 1505.2 |
| Form Elo | 1485.1 | 1519.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.9 | 1493.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1551.2 | 1491.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1433.6 | 1403.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -40.5 | +11.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. ASV Neumarkt last-5 Elo change: -40.5; Gebenbach last-5 Elo change: +11.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 67% |
| Attack | 25% | 50% |
| Defense | 45% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 64% | 43% | 54% | 50% | 43% | 46% |
| Draws | 7% | 29% | 18% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 43% | 36% |
ASV NeumarktLDWWWWWDDWWWLLWWDLWWWWLWLDLL
GebenbachLLWLLLLWWDDDWWWLDWLLWWWDWWWL
League goals
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 31 | 55 | 24 | 17 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 15 | 28 | 43 | 18 | 22 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 64% | 75% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 61% | 50% | 43% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 21% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 11% | 4% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 7-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 6-2 | 1-7 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ASV Neumarkt | Gebenbach |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 35% | 65% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 10% | 90% |
| Total | 34.0% | 66.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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