Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 17:00 •
Sportpark Nord
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.56)
1.71 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.4% | 23.2% | 62.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
16.4%
0 - 2
14.0%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Rot-weiss Oberhausen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bonner SC | 0 | 9.6% | 16.4% | 14.0% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Rot-weiss Oberhausen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 26 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bonner SC +12.4, Rot-weiss Oberhausen +24.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bonner SC
vs
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Elo gapRot-weiss Oberhausen +26
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3106.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.3
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1522.5 | 1583.8 |
| Form Elo | 1519.8 | 1601.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.5 | 1531.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.3 | 1600.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.8 | 1509.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.4 | +24.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bonner SC last-5 Elo change: +12.4; Rot-weiss Oberhausen last-5 Elo change: +24.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 80% |
| Attack | 60% | 53% |
| Defense | 47% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 29% | 40% | 34% | 53% | 64% | 59% |
| Draws | 29% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 14% | 21% |
| Loses | 43% | 33% | 38% | 20% | 21% | 21% |
Bonner SCWLLLLDLDWDLWWWDLDWWWDLLLDLWWD
Rot-weiss OberhausenLLWLDDWWLWWWDWWWWDWLWDWDWWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 20 | 32 | 24 | 25 | 49 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 19 | 18 | 37 | 18 | 15 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 79% | 83% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 31% | 52% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 14% | 21% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bonner SC | Rot-weiss Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 21% | 79% |
| Total | 36.6% | 63.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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