Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.67)
1.98 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.9% | 21.6% | 55.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.0%
1 - 2
9.9%
0 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Kluczevia Stargard | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Elana Toruń | 0 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 2.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Elana Toruń carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Elana Toruń -22.7, Kluczevia Stargard +20.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Elana Toruń
vs
Kluczevia Stargard
Elo gapElana Toruń +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3114.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3114.8
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1563.5 | 1551.3 |
| Form Elo | 1557.2 | 1578.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.8 | 1537.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1578.8 | 1590 |
| Defense Elo | 1532.4 | 1577.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.7 | +20.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Elana Toruń last-5 Elo change: -22.7; Kluczevia Stargard last-5 Elo change: +20.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 90% | 100% |
| Defense | 30% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 58% | 47% | 52% | 36% | 54% | 44% |
| Draws | 8% | 33% | 22% | 29% | 15% | 22% |
| Loses | 33% | 20% | 26% | 36% | 31% | 33% |
Elana ToruńLWLLDWWWDWWWDLWWDWWLWWWDLDL
Kluczevia StargardDWLLDLDLWDLWWLLWLWWWWDDWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 16 | 16 | 32 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 67% | 81% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 33% | 52% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 11% | 30% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 9 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 9 |
Streaks
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 2-5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-2 | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Elana Toruń | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 45.5% | 54.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.06 @ 1xBet
Draw3.45 @ Dafabet
Away3.25 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ Marathonbet
No2.07 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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