Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 18:00 •
Stadion MOSiR
Expected Goals
1.16 (league 1.63)
0.46 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.6% | 31.8% | 14.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.0%
0 - 0
19.8%
2 - 0
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Sparta Katowice | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lechia Zielona Góra | 0 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.4% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lechia Zielona Góra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lechia Zielona Góra +1.0, Sparta Katowice -37.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lechia Zielona Góra
vs
Sparta Katowice
Elo gapLechia Zielona Góra +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3160.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3160.9
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1617.9 | 1543 |
| Form Elo | 1617.2 | 1522.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1549.6 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1689.1 | 1611.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1707.6 | 1558.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.0 | -37.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lechia Zielona Góra last-5 Elo change: +1.0; Sparta Katowice last-5 Elo change: -37.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 20% |
| Attack | 62% | 38% |
| Defense | 85% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 42% | 64% | 54% | 36% | 62% | 48% |
| Draws | 50% | 21% | 35% | 43% | 8% | 26% |
| Loses | 8% | 14% | 12% | 21% | 31% | 26% |
Lechia Zielona GóraDWWWWDWLWDDWWDWWWDWDLDWDLW
Sparta KatowiceDWDWWWDWWLDWWWWDWLLDWDLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 34 | 59 | 22 | 21 | 43 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 5 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 46% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 12% | 48% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 0% | 26% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 0% | 7% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-7 | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lechia Zielona Góra | Sparta Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 67.4% | 32.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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