Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Stadion KS Polonia Nysa
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.63)
1.50 (league 1.40)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | 24.0% | 36.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.9%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Słowianin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Polonia Nysa | 0 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Słowianin carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 26 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Polonia Nysa -2.4, Słowianin +39.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Polonia Nysa
vs
Słowianin
Elo gapSłowianin +26
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo2970.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2970.1
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1454.8 | 1515.3 |
| Form Elo | 1440.7 | 1542.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.6 | 1501.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.2 | 1519.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1404.7 | 1491.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.4 | +39.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Polonia Nysa last-5 Elo change: -2.4; Słowianin last-5 Elo change: +39.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Attack | 62% | 54% |
| Defense | 31% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 31% | 23% | 27% | 38% | 31% | 35% |
| Draws | 31% | 38% | 35% | 23% | 31% | 27% |
| Loses | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
Polonia NysaWLWLDDWWLDWDDDLDDLWLLLDLLW
SłowianinDLWDWLWWLDLLLLDLLWLDWWDDWW
League goals
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 21 | 41 | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 20 | 26 | 46 | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 81% | 85% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 46% | 46% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 19% | 8% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 15% | 0% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 8% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-2 | 1-5 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Słowianin |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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