Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadion Naprzód
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.75)
1.86 (league 1.46)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.7% | 22.3% | 44.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.5%
1 - 2
8.9%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Naprzód | 0 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Naprzód +9.9, Siarka Tarnobrzeg -3.6.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Naprzód
vs
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Elo gapNaprzód +1
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3044.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3044.7
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1505.5 | 1539.2 |
| Form Elo | 1517.2 | 1530.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.7 | 1518.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1556.5 | 1785.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1483.5 | 1512.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.9 | -3.6 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Naprzód last-5 Elo change: +9.9; Siarka Tarnobrzeg last-5 Elo change: -3.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 56% |
| Defense | 33% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 31% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 38% | 41% |
| Draws | 23% | 7% | 15% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
| Loses | 46% | 50% | 48% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
NaprzódLLWDDDLWWLLLWLWLLLDLWWLWWWL
Siarka TarnobrzegLWLDDLWWLWWWDWDWDLWLWLLWDDD
League goals
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 18 | 41 | 29 | 21 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 22 | 23 | 45 | 17 | 20 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 48% | 56% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 26% | 22% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 15% | 15% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-2 | 6-1 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Naprzód | Siarka Tarnobrzeg |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 57.0% | 43.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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