Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Sportclub Arena
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.69)
1.22 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.9% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Ennepetal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Verl II | 0 | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 6.0% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Verl II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Verl II -15.6, Ennepetal +31.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Verl II
vs
Ennepetal
Elo gapVerl II +40
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2823.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2823.2
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1414.1 | 1409.1 |
| Form Elo | 1406.9 | 1427.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1456.4 | 1437.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.6 | 1487.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1375.2 | 1301 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.6 | +31.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Verl II last-5 Elo change: -15.6; Ennepetal last-5 Elo change: +31.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 80% |
| Attack | 32% | 45% |
| Defense | 55% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 21% | 31% | 27% | 36% | 13% | 24% |
| Draws | 29% | 19% | 23% | 14% | 13% | 14% |
| Loses | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 73% | 62% |
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EnnepetalLLLLLLDLWLLLWLDLLDLDLWLLWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 23 | 42 | 22 | 16 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 34 | 57 | 26 | 42 | 68 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Verl II | Ennepetal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 87% | 66% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 50% | 38% | 76% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 27% | 10% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 13% | 3% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 14% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-3 | 1-4 | 8-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 8-2 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Verl II | Ennepetal |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 47.2% | 53.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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