Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Marschweg Stadion
Expected Goals
2.03 (league 1.95)
1.75 (league 1.74)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.2% | 21.2% | 33.0% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 1
8.1%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Kilia Kiel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kaltenkirchen | 0 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Kilia Kiel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 61 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kaltenkirchen -14.6, Kilia Kiel +19.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kaltenkirchen
vs
Kilia Kiel
Elo gapKilia Kiel +61
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3081.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3081.4
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1492.9 | 1588.5 |
| Form Elo | 1494 | 1598.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1521.3 | 1504.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.4 | 1866.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1463.5 | 1500.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.6 | +19.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kaltenkirchen last-5 Elo change: -14.6; Kilia Kiel last-5 Elo change: +19.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Attack | 5% | 91% |
| Defense | 82% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 20 | 4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
76%
FT probability
3.5+
54%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 54% | 15% | 35% | 77% | 31% | 54% |
| Draws | 23% | 23% | 23% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Loses | 23% | 62% | 42% | 8% | 54% | 31% |
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Kilia KielWLWDLDLLLDWWWWWWLLDWWWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 13 | 41 | 48 | 25 | 73 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 21 | 25 | 46 | 16 | 23 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 81% | 88% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 54% | 65% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 35% | 54% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 8% | 31% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 23% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 7-0 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kaltenkirchen | Kilia Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Att | 5% | 95% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 30.0% | 70.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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