Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Hans-Peter-Storm-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.46 (league 1.95)
1.57 (league 1.74)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.1% | 24.1% | 39.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
1 - 2
8.7%
2 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Nordmark Satrup | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Oldenburger SV | 0 | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Nordmark Satrup carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 35 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Oldenburger SV -33.0, Nordmark Satrup +21.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Oldenburger SV
vs
Nordmark Satrup
Elo gapNordmark Satrup +35
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2968.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2968.4
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1449.1 | 1519.3 |
| Form Elo | 1444.9 | 1541.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.9 | 1492.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1594.2 | 1547.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1270.8 | 1526.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.0 | +21.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Oldenburger SV last-5 Elo change: -33.0; Nordmark Satrup last-5 Elo change: +21.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 73% |
| Attack | 32% | 41% |
| Defense | 41% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 31% | 23% | 27% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 31% | 8% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Loses | 38% | 69% | 54% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
Oldenburger SVLDLLDWWLWLLLDLLWWWLWLDLLLD
Nordmark SatrupLLLLLWWWDWWLLLWLWDLWWDDW
League goals
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 27 | 52 | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 27 | 43 | 70 | 16 | 18 | 34 |
| GA avg | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 96% | 75% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 81% | 29% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 50% | 21% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 27% | 17% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 8% | 13% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-5 | 5-0 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Oldenburger SV | Nordmark Satrup |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 15% | 85% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 24% | 76% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 37.5% | 62.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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