Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Ernst-Wagener-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.95)
1.59 (league 1.74)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.9% | 24.9% | 47.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Holstein Kiel II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SV Eichede | 0 | 6.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
SV Eichede carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SV Eichede +9.6, Holstein Kiel II +14.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
SV Eichede
vs
Holstein Kiel II
Elo gapSV Eichede +27
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3163.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3163.4
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1577.7 | 1585.7 |
| Form Elo | 1578.7 | 1598.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1523.4 | 1531.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1544.3 | 1659.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1597.7 | 1613.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.6 | +14.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. SV Eichede last-5 Elo change: +9.6; Holstein Kiel II last-5 Elo change: +14.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 80% |
| Attack | 59% | 59% |
| Defense | 91% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Wins | 58% | 62% | 60% | 71% | 58% | 65% |
| Draws | 25% | 38% | 32% | 14% | 17% | 15% |
| Loses | 17% | 0% | 8% | 14% | 25% | 19% |
SV EichedeWWDWWDDWWWWDLDWWDLDWWWWWD
Holstein Kiel IILWWWWLDWWWWDWWDLWWWDLLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 30 | 54 | 40 | 27 | 67 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 14 | 10 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 68% | 81% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 76% | 20% | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 4% | 54% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 4% | 27% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 12% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-5 | 7-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 0-2 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SV Eichede | Holstein Kiel II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52% | 48% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 43.4% | 56.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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