Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Lupo Stadio
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.67)
1.93 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.1% | 21.1% | 63.5% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.0%
0 - 2
12.6%
1 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Wilhelmshaven | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lupo-Martini | 0 | 6.7% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Wilhelmshaven carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 107 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lupo-Martini -17.2, Wilhelmshaven -9.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lupo-Martini
vs
Wilhelmshaven
Elo gapWilhelmshaven +107
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share35%
Combined Elo2935.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2935.9
Elo home share
35%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1397.2 | 1538.7 |
| Form Elo | 1384.5 | 1515.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1460.5 | 1525.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1407.3 | 1562.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1369.8 | 1510 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.2 | -9.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lupo-Martini last-5 Elo change: -17.2; Wilhelmshaven last-5 Elo change: -9.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 27% | 27% |
| Defense | 32% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| Wins | 8% | 8% | 8% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
| Draws | 31% | 15% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 21% |
| Loses | 62% | 77% | 69% | 31% | 36% | 33% |
Lupo-MartiniLLLDLLLLLWDLLDLLLDDDLLLWLL
WilhelmshavenDWWWDDWLWWDDWWLLWLLLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 37 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 28 | 35 | 63 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| GA avg | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 58% | 100% | 71% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 73% | 54% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 38% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 27% | 8% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 3-5 | 5-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 29% | 71% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 33.5% | 66.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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