Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
SPA Brinkum Platz 2
Expected Goals
2.11 (league 2.39)
1.45 (league 1.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.6% | 20.9% | 26.0% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 1
8.7%
2 - 2
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Leher TS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Brinkumer SV | 0 | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Brinkumer SV carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 142 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Brinkumer SV -17.8, Leher TS -23.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Brinkumer SV
vs
Leher TS
Elo gapBrinkumer SV +142
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2980.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2980.9
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.9 | 1437 |
| Form Elo | 1546.2 | 1417.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.8 | 1507.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1831.3 | 1442.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1372.9 | 1454.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.8 | -23.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Brinkumer SV last-5 Elo change: -17.8; Leher TS last-5 Elo change: -23.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 48% | 33% |
| Defense | 41% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 16 | 3.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
82%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 11 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 64% | 45% | 56% | 23% | 50% | 36% |
| Draws | 14% | 9% | 12% | 23% | 0% | 12% |
| Loses | 21% | 45% | 32% | 54% | 50% | 52% |
Brinkumer SVDDLWWWDLWLWWLWWLWWWWWWLLL
Leher TSLWWWLWLDLLWLLWLLLWLDWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 33 | 72 | 14 | 28 | 42 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 28 | 21 | 49 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 68% | 64% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 72% | 44% | 44% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 28% | 28% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 8% | 16% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 20% | 8% | 16% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 0-7 | 3-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 7-4 | 2-6 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Brinkumer SV | Leher TS |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 58.3% | 41.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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