Expected Goals
2.79 (league 1.07) 0.72 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
73.9% 12.7% 6.9%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.7%
3 - 0
10.9%
2 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Marinhense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Benfica Castelo Branco 0 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.4% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 8.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.9% 7.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 7.6% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
Played55
Form67%27%
Attack100%33%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Benfica Castelo Branco Marinhense
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins50%50%50%25%25%25%
Draws25%25%25%50%25%38%
Loses25%25%25%25%50%38%

Form: Benfica Castelo Branco: DWLLWDWW • Marinhense: WDDLLWLD

League goals

Metric Benfica Castelo Branco Marinhense
HATHAT
GF total6713235
GF avg1.51.81.60.50.80.6
GA total4592810
GA avg1.01.31.10.52.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%75%63%63%
1.550%38%0%25%
2.525%0%0%25%
3.50%0%0%13%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
HATHAT
Clean sheets202213
Failed to score101213

Penalties

MetricBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
Wins11
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-31-00-1
Biggest losses0-22-10-14-0
Goals For3311
Goals Against2214

Model comparison

MetricBenfica Castelo BrancoMarinhense
Form71%29%
Att83%17%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution77%23%
H2h62%38%
Goals58%42%
Total68.0%32.0%

Advice: Winner : Benfica Castelo Branco

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.25 @ 1xBet
Draw3.05 @ Betano
Away3.10 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.42 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ Marathonbet
No1.70 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Benfica Castelo Branco = 2.79 (league 1.07), Marinhense = 0.72 (league 1.12)

Marinhense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Benfica Castelo Branco 0 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 8.4% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 8.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.9% 7.8% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 7.6% 5.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 4.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 73.9% · Draw 12.7% · Away win 6.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1