Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 15:00 •
Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande
Expected Goals
0.82 (league 1.10)
0.82 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.4% | 34.8% | 32.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
19.4%
0 - 1
16.0%
1 - 0
15.9%
Score & goals probability table
| UD da Serra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 15% | 38% |
| Defense | 23% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 25% | 20% | 22% | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Draws | 50% | 20% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 22% |
| Loses | 25% | 60% | 44% | 0% | 50% | 22% |
Form: Marinhense: WDDLLWLDL • UD da Serra: WDWWLDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 2 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marinhense | UD da Serra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 67% | 67% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 33% | 56% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 22% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 22% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-1 | 4-1 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marinhense | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 44.4% | 55.8% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or UD da Serra
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Marinhense = 0.82 (league 1.10), UD da Serra = 0.82 (league 1.09)
| UD da Serra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.9% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.4% · Draw 34.8% · Away win 32.7%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1