Wed, Mar 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.16)
0.46 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.2% | 24.7% | 10.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.7%
2 - 0
16.2%
0 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vitória de Sernache | 0 | 13.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 27% | 47% |
| Defense | 87% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
63%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| Wins | 73% | 64% | 68% | 67% | 50% | 59% |
| Draws | 9% | 36% | 23% | 17% | 10% | 14% |
| Loses | 18% | 0% | 9% | 17% | 40% | 27% |
Form: Vitória de Sernache: WWWWWWDLWWDWWWDWDWDLWW • Benfica Castelo Branco: DWLLWDWWWLWWWWLLWWLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 13 | 30 | 27 | 12 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 32% | 77% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 5% | 45% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 0% | 32% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-4 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Vitória de Sernache or draw and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Vitória de Sernache = 1.56 (league 1.16), Benfica Castelo Branco = 0.46 (league 1.05)
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vitória de Sernache | 0 | 13.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.2% · Draw 24.7% · Away win 10.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1