Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 15:00 •
Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande
Expected Goals
0.22 (league 1.11)
1.09 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% | 33.7% | 58.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
29.5%
0 - 0
27.0%
0 - 2
16.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Vitória de Sernache | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 27.0% | 29.5% | 16.2% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 73% |
| Attack | 31% | 38% |
| Defense | 63% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
51%
FT probability
2.5+
36%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 25% | 25% | 25% | 78% | 67% | 72% |
| Draws | 50% | 25% | 38% | 11% | 33% | 22% |
| Loses | 25% | 50% | 38% | 11% | 0% | 6% |
Form: Marinhense: WDDLLWLDLDDLLDWW • Vitória de Sernache: WWWWWWDLWWDWWWDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 28 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 7 | 13 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 63% | 78% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 31% | 50% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 17% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marinhense | Vitória de Sernache |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 39% | 61% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 16% | 84% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 42.3% | 57.7% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Vitória de Sernache and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Marinhense = 0.22 (league 1.11), Vitória de Sernache = 1.09 (league 1.07)
| Vitória de Sernache | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 27.0% | 29.5% | 16.2% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 7.2% · Draw 33.7% · Away win 58.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1