Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 15:00 •
Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.16)
0.91 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5% | 34.0% | 36.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
18.4%
0 - 1
16.7%
1 - 0
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 18.4% | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 92% |
| Defense | 42% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| Wins | 30% | 20% | 25% | 73% | 44% | 60% |
| Draws | 50% | 30% | 40% | 9% | 11% | 10% |
| Loses | 20% | 50% | 35% | 18% | 44% | 30% |
Form: Marinhense: WDDLLWLDLDDLLDWWDWLD • Benfica Castelo Branco: DWLLWDWWWLWWWWLLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 11 | 37 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 8 | 18 | 26 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 65% | 75% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 15% | 30% | 50% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 35% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | 6-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marinhense | Benfica Castelo Branco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 35% | 65% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 40.2% | 59.8% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Marinhense = 0.78 (league 1.16), Benfica Castelo Branco = 0.91 (league 1.06)
| Benfica Castelo Branco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marinhense | 0 | 18.4% | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.4% | 13.1% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.5% · Draw 34.0% · Away win 36.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1