Sun, Mar 15 2026 • 16:00 •
Campo de Jogos de São Mateus da Calheta
Expected Goals
1.44 (league 1.11)
3.02 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | 15.1% | 60.9% |
best score tips
1 - 3
7.7%
1 - 2
7.6%
1 - 4
5.8%
Score & goals probability table
| UD da Serra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lusitânia | 0 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 87% |
| Attack | 56% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 10 | 21 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| Wins | 18% | 20% | 19% | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Draws | 18% | 20% | 19% | 55% | 11% | 35% |
| Loses | 64% | 60% | 62% | 0% | 44% | 20% |
Form: Lusitânia: WLDLWLLLWLDLDLLLDLLWL • UD da Serra: WDWWLDLWWDDLDDLWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 9 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 21 | 15 | 36 | 5 | 14 | 19 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lusitânia | UD da Serra | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 62% | 86% | 70% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 57% | 45% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 14% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 15% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-0 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lusitânia | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 24% | 76% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 14% | 86% |
| Poisson Distribution | 27% | 73% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 25.3% | 74.8% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or UD da Serra
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Lusitânia = 1.44 (league 1.11), UD da Serra = 3.02 (league 1.07)
| UD da Serra | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lusitânia | 0 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.1% · Draw 15.1% · Away win 60.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1