Sun, Apr 12 2026 • 15:00 •
Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira
Expected Goals
1.33 (league 1.16)
0.26 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.6% | 28.1% | 7.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
27.3%
0 - 0
20.5%
2 - 0
18.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Mortágua | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vitória de Sernache | 0 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.1% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 31% | 15% |
| Defense | 77% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
52%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 67% | 58% | 63% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
| Draws | 17% | 42% | 29% | 33% | 17% | 25% |
| Loses | 17% | 0% | 8% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Form: Vitória de Sernache: WWWWWWDLWWDWWWDWDWDLWWDD • Mortágua: DDWWLLDWDDWLWLWWWWLLDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 15 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 33% | 63% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 8% | 21% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 0% | 4% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 2-4 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | — | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vitória de Sernache | Mortágua |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 69.5% | 30.5% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Vitória de Sernache or draw and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Vitória de Sernache = 1.33 (league 1.16), Mortágua = 0.26 (league 1.06)
| Mortágua | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vitória de Sernache | 0 | 20.5% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.1% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.6% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 7.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1