Sat, Jan 17 2026 • 15:00 •
Estádio Capitão Josino da Costa
Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.31)
1.43 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | 22.7% | 29.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| FC Serpa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lagoa | 0 | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 40% |
| Attack | 79% | 43% |
| Defense | 50% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Wins | 43% | 29% | 36% | 63% | 17% | 43% |
| Draws | 29% | 43% | 36% | 13% | 50% | 29% |
| Loses | 29% | 29% | 29% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
Form: Lagoa: LLLDDDDWWDWWLW • FC Serpa: LWWDWDWDDWLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 10 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 7 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lagoa | FC Serpa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 93% | 86% | 86% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 36% | 29% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 7% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-3 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lagoa | FC Serpa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 65% | 35% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 47.0% | 53.3% |
Advice: Double chance : Lagoa or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Lagoa = 1.83 (league 1.31), FC Serpa = 1.43 (league 1.19)
| FC Serpa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lagoa | 0 | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.0% · Draw 22.7% · Away win 29.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1