Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
BSA Rollsportstadion Platz 22
Expected Goals
2.61 (league 2.38)
1.88 (league 1.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.9% | 18.4% | 26.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.2%
2 - 2
6.8%
3 - 1
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
| BTS Neustadt | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Bremen | 0 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Union Bremen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 109 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Union Bremen +26.4, BTS Neustadt -1.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Union Bremen
vs
BTS Neustadt
Elo gapUnion Bremen +109
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3051.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3051.4
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1562.5 | 1488.9 |
| Form Elo | 1585.2 | 1490.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1499.6 | 1489.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1745.4 | 1730.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1491.5 | 1305.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.4 | -1.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Union Bremen last-5 Elo change: +26.4; BTS Neustadt last-5 Elo change: -1.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 33% | 46% |
| Defense | 50% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
65%
FT probability
BTTS
88%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| Wins | 58% | 54% | 56% | 55% | 43% | 48% |
| Draws | 8% | 0% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 8% |
| Loses | 33% | 46% | 40% | 36% | 50% | 44% |
Union BremenWLWLWWLLDWWWLWLWWWWLLWWLL
BTS NeustadtWLLLWWWWLDDLLLWLWLWWWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 29 | 57 | 37 | 29 | 66 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 20 | 29 | 49 | 23 | 38 | 61 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 88% | 84% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 60% | 72% | 68% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 32% | 44% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 12% | 24% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 12% | 4% | 16% | 12% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-6 | 10-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-0 | 2-5 | 8-0 |
| Goals For | 7 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Union Bremen | BTS Neustadt |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 48.7% | 51.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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