Oberliga - Bremen — Germany
Sat, May 2 2026 • 12:00 • Stadion Vegesack
Not Started

Aumund-Vegesack

—

Union Bremen

Expected Goals
1.78 (league 2.35) 1.88 (league 1.87)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.2% 21.7% 39.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.1%
2 - 1
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
Union Bremen
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aumund-Vegesack 0 2.6% 4.8% 4.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5%
1 4.6% 8.6% 8.1% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9%
2 4.1% 7.7% 7.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
3 2.4% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
4 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Union Bremen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Aumund-Vegesack +37.2, Union Bremen +5.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Aumund-Vegesack Elo 1472.4 · +37.2
vs
Union Bremen Elo 1543.9 · +5.0
Elo gapUnion Bremen +37
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3016.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3016.3
Elo home share 45%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Aumund-Vegesack Union Bremen
Overall Elo1472.41543.9
Form Elo14811551.9
Home / Away Elo1517.61543.8
Attack Elo1625.61729.4
Defense Elo1304.61469.5
Last 5 Elo change+37.2+5.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Aumund-Vegesack last-5 Elo change: +37.2; Union Bremen last-5 Elo change: +5.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
Played55
Form67%40%
Attack0%0%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)16 | 3.29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.211 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

82%
FT probability

3.5+

58%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aumund-Vegesack Union Bremen
HATHAT
Played121426131326
Wins50%21%35%54%54%54%
Draws8%7%8%8%0%4%
Loses42%71%58%38%46%42%
Aumund-VegesackLWWLLLLLDLWLWLWLLLLLWWLWWD
Union BremenWLWLWWLLDWWWLWLWWWWLLWWLLL

League goals

Metric Aumund-Vegesack Union Bremen
HATHAT
GF total232447292958
GF avg1.91.71.82.22.22.2
GA total194463242953
GA avg1.63.12.41.82.22.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%81%81%88%
1.558%65%50%62%
2.523%46%38%35%
3.512%23%27%15%
4.58%15%12%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
HATHAT
Clean sheets415213
Failed to score437145

Penalties

MetricAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
Wins24
Draws11
Losses52

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-02-57-10-6
Biggest losses0-48-11-45-0
Goals For7576
Goals Against4845

Model comparison

MetricAumund-VegesackUnion Bremen
Form63%38%
Att64%36%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h80%20%
Goals63%37%
Total61.3%38.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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