Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Szekszárdi Városi Stadion
Expected Goals
0.73 (league 1.86)
1.87 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 13.9% | 21.6% | 63.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.9%
0 - 2
13.0%
1 - 1
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Pécsi MFC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Szekszárd | 0 | 7.4% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Pécsi MFC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 203 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Szekszárd -20.1, Pécsi MFC +13.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Szekszárd
vs
Pécsi MFC
Elo gapPécsi MFC +203
Home / draw / away20% / 18% / 62%
Expected home share24%
Combined Elo3072.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3072.8
Elo home share
24%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1417.4 | 1655.4 |
| Form Elo | 1411.8 | 1672.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.4 | 1567.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1472.4 | 1799.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1294.4 | 1655.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.1 | +13.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Szekszárd last-5 Elo change: -20.1; Pécsi MFC last-5 Elo change: +13.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 36% | 79% |
| Defense | 0% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 32% | 77% | 50% | 64% |
| Draws | 8% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 33% | 24% |
| Loses | 25% | 85% | 56% | 8% | 17% | 12% |
SzekszárdWDWLWLWLWLLLLDLDWLWLWLLLL
Pécsi MFCWDWDWLLWWDWDWWWDWWWWDWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 14 | 34 | 37 | 22 | 59 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 18 | 43 | 61 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 84% | 84% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 64% | 60% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 48% | 44% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 32% | 24% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 12% | 12% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | — | 6-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-6 | 4-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Szekszárd | Pécsi MFC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 7% | 93% |
| Total | 22.0% | 78.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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