NB III - Southwest — Hungary
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 • Balatonlellei Sporttelep
Not Started

Balatonlelle SE

—

Paksi SE II

Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.86) 1.36 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.9% 27.7% 47.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.2%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Paksi SE II
0 1 2 3 4 5
Balatonlelle SE 0 10.4% 14.2% 9.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.4% 12.8% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.2% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Paksi SE II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Balatonlelle SE -45.5, Paksi SE II -29.0.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Balatonlelle SE Elo 1414.7 · -45.5
vs
Paksi SE II Elo 1487.1 · -29.0
Elo gapPaksi SE II +37
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2901.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2901.8
Elo home share 45%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Balatonlelle SE Paksi SE II
Overall Elo1414.71487.1
Form Elo1387.61480.4
Home / Away Elo1466.71467.8
Attack Elo1403.41591.3
Defense Elo1470.31399.1
Last 5 Elo change-45.5-29.0

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Balatonlelle SE last-5 Elo change: -45.5; Paksi SE II last-5 Elo change: -29.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
Played55
Form0%27%
Attack7%57%
Defense21%7%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.213 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Balatonlelle SE Paksi SE II
HATHAT
Played121325131225
Wins17%15%16%38%25%32%
Draws33%8%20%15%0%8%
Loses50%77%64%46%75%60%
Balatonlelle SELLLLLWWDLDLLWDDLWDLLLLLLL
Paksi SE IILLLWLWWLLLWLLLWDLLWWLWDLL

League goals

Metric Balatonlelle SE Paksi SE II
HATHAT
GF total10818171734
GF avg0.80.60.71.31.41.4
GA total172946282553
GA avg1.42.21.82.22.12.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.552%84%72%80%
1.512%40%40%64%
2.58%28%16%44%
3.50%12%8%20%
4.50%8%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
HATHAT
Clean sheets224235
Failed to score5712347

Penalties

MetricBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
Wins22
Draws21
Losses53

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-10-4
Biggest losses0-47-00-53-0
Goals For3344
Goals Against4754

Model comparison

MetricBalatonlelle SEPaksi SE II
Form0%100%
Att11%89%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total35.0%65.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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