Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Dunaharaszti Sportpálya
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.58)
0.80 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.7% | 25.0% | 18.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
11.6%
2 - 0
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Csepel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dunaharaszti MTK | 0 | 9.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Dunaharaszti MTK carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 52 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dunaharaszti MTK -0.1, Csepel -13.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dunaharaszti MTK
vs
Csepel
Elo gapDunaharaszti MTK +52
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2989
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2989
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1502.9 | 1486.1 |
| Form Elo | 1501.3 | 1449.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.5 | 1500.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1641.7 | 1481.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1438.9 | 1476.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.1 | -13.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dunaharaszti MTK last-5 Elo change: -0.1; Csepel last-5 Elo change: -13.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 56% | 22% |
| Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 50% | 38% | 44% | 54% | 33% | 44% |
| Draws | 17% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 16% |
| Loses | 33% | 54% | 44% | 31% | 50% | 40% |
Dunaharaszti MTKWDLWLLWDWLLLWWWWDLLWLWLWL
CsepelWWLDLLWLWLWLLWLWWWDWLWDDL
League goals
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 19 | 40 | 22 | 12 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 30 | 43 | 13 | 17 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 80% | 68% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 56% | 36% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 16% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-3 | 6-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-1 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dunaharaszti MTK | Csepel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 14% | 86% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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