Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 09:00 •
Tungsram SC Sporttelep
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.72)
1.56 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.5% | 25.1% | 46.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| MTE 1904 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Újpest II | 0 | 6.7% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
MTE 1904 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 65 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Újpest II +60.4, MTE 1904 -24.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Újpest II
vs
MTE 1904
Elo gapMTE 1904 +65
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3029.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3029.7
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1464.8 | 1564.9 |
| Form Elo | 1490.6 | 1559.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483.6 | 1528.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1528.6 | 1599.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1408 | 1599.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +60.4 | -24.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Újpest II last-5 Elo change: +60.4; MTE 1904 last-5 Elo change: -24.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 40% |
| Attack | 44% | 22% |
| Defense | 85% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 25% | 31% | 28% | 62% | 42% | 52% |
| Draws | 33% | 15% | 24% | 15% | 17% | 16% |
| Loses | 42% | 54% | 48% | 23% | 42% | 32% |
Újpest IIWLLLLDLLLDLDDDWLLWLLWWWDW
MTE 1904LWDLWDWWWWWLLLWWWDDWWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 20 | 38 | 25 | 17 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Újpest II | MTE 1904 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 88% | 76% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 48% | 64% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 32% | 16% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Újpest II | MTE 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 22% | 78% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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