Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Tarpa Sportcentrum
Expected Goals
2.17 (league 1.77)
0.60 (league 1.46)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2% | 17.5% | 8.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.7%
1 - 0
13.5%
3 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Eger | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tarpa | 0 | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.5% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.7% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.6% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Tarpa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 97 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tarpa -35.1, Eger -21.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Tarpa
vs
Eger
Elo gapTarpa +97
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo2975
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2975
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.6 | 1456.4 |
| Form Elo | 1500 | 1449.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.2 | 1467.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1488.5 | 1519.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1585.3 | 1256.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -35.1 | -21.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tarpa last-5 Elo change: -35.1; Eger last-5 Elo change: -21.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 20% |
| Attack | 14% | 43% |
| Defense | 57% | 7% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 42% | 23% | 32% | 54% | 17% | 36% |
| Draws | 50% | 31% | 40% | 8% | 25% | 16% |
| Loses | 8% | 46% | 28% | 38% | 58% | 48% |
TarpaDDLWLWWWWDLWWLWDDDDDLLLDD
EgerDWLDWLLWLLWLWLWDDWWLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 11 | 30 | 24 | 13 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 10 | 15 | 25 | 30 | 29 | 59 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tarpa | Eger | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 68% | 64% | 96% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 28% | 48% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 4% | 24% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 12% | 28% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-5 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tarpa | Eger |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 68% | 32% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 46.0% | 54.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…