Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:00 •
Arena Kombetare
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.17)
1.57 (league 0.92)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.0% | 25.3% | 51.1% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.5%
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Partizani | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tirana | 0 | 7.9% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Tirana +45.1, Partizani -26.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Tirana
vs
Partizani
Elo gapPartizani +15
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3011.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3011.6
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.7 | 1530.9 |
| Form Elo | 1491.7 | 1538.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1472.4 | 1506.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1453.6 | 1446.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1494.3 | 1533.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +45.1 | -26.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Tirana last-5 Elo change: +45.1; Partizani last-5 Elo change: -26.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 20% |
| Attack | 100% | 56% |
| Defense | 67% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 25% | 19% | 22% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Draws | 25% | 44% | 34% | 31% | 25% | 28% |
| Loses | 50% | 38% | 44% | 31% | 38% | 34% |
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PartizaniWDLLLLWDLDWDDWWWLLLWLDWWWWWDDLLD
League goals
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 16 | 29 | 15 | 19 | 34 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 19 | 25 | 44 | 16 | 23 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tirana | Partizani | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 75% | 66% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 34% | 38% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 16% | 3% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 6-2 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tirana | Partizani |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 79% | 21% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 77% | 23% |
| Poisson Distribution | 39% | 61% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 61.2% | 38.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.37 @ Dafabet
Draw3.00 @ Bet365
Away2.94 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.35 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Betfair
No1.77 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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