Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 16:00 • AEK Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.65 (league 1.54) 1.31 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.4% 28.9% 52.5%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.5%
0 - 0
14.1%
0 - 2
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
Pafos
0 1 2 3 4 5
AEK Larnaca 0 14.1% 18.5% 12.1% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.1% 12.0% 7.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 3.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAEK LarnacaPafos
Played55
Form67%80%
Attack56%44%
Defense78%89%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.82 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AEK Larnaca Pafos
HATHAT
Played235325
Wins100%33%60%67%100%80%
Draws0%33%20%0%0%0%
Loses0%33%20%33%0%20%

Form: AEK Larnaca: WDLWW • Pafos: WLWWW

League goals

Metric AEK Larnaca Pafos
HATHAT
GF total5510538
GF avg2.51.72.01.71.51.6
GA total224202
GA avg1.00.70.80.70.00.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAEK LarnacaPafos
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%60%80%40%
1.560%20%60%0%
2.540%0%20%0%
3.520%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAEK LarnacaPafos
HATHAT
Clean sheets112123
Failed to score011101

Penalties

MetricAEK LarnacaPafos
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricAEK LarnacaPafos
Wins11
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-43-00-2
Biggest losses1-00-1
Goals For3432
Goals Against2110

Model comparison

MetricAEK LarnacaPafos
Form45%55%
Att56%44%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h38%62%
Goals33%67%
Total41.0%59.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Pafos

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.79 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.18 @ Marathonbet
Away2.80 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.26 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AEK Larnaca = 0.65 (league 1.54), Pafos = 1.31 (league 1.14)

Pafos
0 1 2 3 4 5
AEK Larnaca 0 14.1% 18.5% 12.1% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5%
1 9.1% 12.0% 7.8% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 3.0% 3.9% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.4% · Draw 28.9% · Away win 52.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1