Super League
— Zambia
Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 13:00 •
Nkoloma Stadium
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.03)
0.40 (league 0.70)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5% | 20.1% | 7.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.7%
2 - 0
18.1%
3 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Konkola Blades | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Red Arrows | 0 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.1% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Red Arrows carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 121 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Red Arrows +19.8, Konkola Blades -16.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Red Arrows
vs
Konkola Blades
Elo gapRed Arrows +121
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo3089.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3089.1
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1587.4 | 1501.7 |
| Form Elo | 1595.8 | 1497.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1571 | 1496.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1513.6 | 1415.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1624.8 | 1570.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.8 | -16.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Red Arrows last-5 Elo change: +19.8; Konkola Blades last-5 Elo change: -16.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 67% | 44% |
| Defense | 78% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 86% | 21% | 54% | 40% | 15% | 29% |
| Draws | 14% | 50% | 32% | 40% | 54% | 46% |
| Loses | 0% | 29% | 14% | 20% | 31% | 25% |
Red ArrowsWDWWDWWDWWWDWLLWDDWLDWLWDDWW
Konkola BladesLDDWDLLWWDLDLDDWDWDWLWDDLDDW
League goals
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 12 | 39 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 5 | 14 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 54% | 64% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 11% | 18% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Red Arrows | Konkola Blades |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 65.2% | 34.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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