NAPSA Stars vs Nkana

Super League — Zambia

Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 13:00 • REIZ Arena

Not Started

NAPSA Stars

—

Nkana

Expected Goals

0.68 (league 1.03) 0.64 (league 0.70)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
31.3%	39.7%	29.0%

best score tips

0 - 0

26.8%

1 - 0

18.1%

0 - 1

17.1%

Score & goals probability table

		Nkana
		0	1	2	3	4	5
NAPSA Stars	0	26.8%	17.1%	5.5%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
	1	18.1%	11.6%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	6.1%	3.9%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	1.4%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: NAPSA Stars -5.8, Nkana -23.0.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

NAPSA Stars Elo 1466.5 · -5.8

Nkana Elo 1504.6 · -23.0

Elo gapNkana +3

Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%

Expected home share50%

Combined Elo2971.1

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2971.1

Elo home share 50%

Match tone Good Watch

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Overall Elo	1466.5	1504.6
Form Elo	1458.5	1484.2
Home / Away Elo	1487.8	1485.1
Attack Elo	1387	1429
Defense Elo	1573.1	1581.7
Last 5 Elo change	-5.8	-23.0

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. NAPSA Stars last-5 Elo change: -5.8; Nkana last-5 Elo change: -23.0.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Played	5	5
Form	27%	33%
Attack	67%	67%
Defense	11%	33%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	6 \| 1.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

46%

FT probability

2.5+

32%

FT probability

3.5+

23%

FT probability

BTTS

55%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	NAPSA Stars			Nkana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	15	29	14	15	29
Wins	29%	13%	21%	43%	13%	28%
Draws	36%	33%	34%	29%	47%	38%
Loses	36%	53%	45%	29%	40%	34%

NAPSA StarsLDDLWDDDLWLDLWWDDLLLLWDLLLWLD

NkanaDDLLDDLLLDDWDWWWWWLLLWDDDLLWD

League goals

Metric	NAPSA Stars			Nkana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	10	11	21	14	7	21
GF avg	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	0.7
GA total	12	19	31	9	15	24
GA avg	0.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	1.0	0.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	NAPSA Stars		Nkana
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	59%	66%	55%	66%
1.5	14%	31%	14%	14%
2.5	0%	10%	3%	3%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	NAPSA Stars			Nkana
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	6	4	10	6	4	10
Failed to score	5	7	12	5	8	13

Penalties

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Wins	2	5
Draws	3	3
Losses	4	3

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	0-2	3-1	0-1
Biggest losses	1-3	2-0	1-2	3-0
Goals For	2	2	3	1
Goals Against	3	3	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Form	44%	56%
Att	50%	50%
Def	43%	57%
Poisson Distribution	54%	46%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	50%	50%
Total	48.5%	51.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • NAPSA Stars vs Nkana

Metric	NAPSA Stars	Nkana
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0