Super League
— Zambia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 13:00 •
Arthur Davies Stadium
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 1.03)
0.45 (league 0.70)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | 26.9% | 11.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.8%
2 - 0
15.5%
0 - 0
15.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Mines | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mutondo Stars | 0 | 15.3% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Mutondo Stars carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mutondo Stars -17.3, Mines -19.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Mutondo Stars
vs
Mines
Elo gapMutondo Stars +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2866.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2866.5
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.9 | 1395.6 |
| Form Elo | 1470 | 1375.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1486.5 | 1443.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1356.2 | 1371.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.2 | 1439.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.3 | -19.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mutondo Stars last-5 Elo change: -17.3; Mines last-5 Elo change: -19.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 7% |
| Attack | 22% | 22% |
| Defense | 33% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| Wins | 33% | 0% | 17% | 8% | 7% | 7% |
| Draws | 33% | 57% | 45% | 54% | 13% | 32% |
| Loses | 33% | 43% | 38% | 38% | 80% | 61% |
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MinesLLDLLLLLDDLDLWDDWLDDLLLDLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 12 | 17 | 29 | 13 | 32 | 45 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mutondo Stars | Mines | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 69% | 50% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 7% | 28% | 4% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mutondo Stars | Mines |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 65% | 35% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 61.6% | 38.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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