Super League
— Zambia
Sat, May 2 2026 • 13:00 •
Shinde Stadium
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.03)
0.64 (league 0.70)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.0% | 38.0% | 27.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.4%
1 - 0
18.8%
0 - 1
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Red Arrows | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mufulira Wanderers | 0 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Red Arrows carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mufulira Wanderers +0.4, Red Arrows +19.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Mufulira Wanderers
vs
Red Arrows
Elo gapRed Arrows +34
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3106.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3106.1
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.7 | 1587.4 |
| Form Elo | 1522.2 | 1595.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.5 | 1505.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1389.4 | 1513.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1621.3 | 1624.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.4 | +19.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Mufulira Wanderers last-5 Elo change: +0.4; Red Arrows last-5 Elo change: +19.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 44% | 67% |
| Defense | 33% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
48%
FT probability
2.5+
34%
FT probability
3.5+
24%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 47% | 43% | 45% | 86% | 21% | 54% |
| Draws | 27% | 14% | 21% | 14% | 50% | 32% |
| Loses | 27% | 43% | 34% | 0% | 29% | 14% |
Mufulira WanderersWDLLWDWDWLLWDWLLWWWLWWLWDDLWL
Red ArrowsWDWWDWWDWWWDWLLWDDWLDWLWDDWW
League goals
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 9 | 21 | 27 | 12 | 39 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 7 | 13 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 19 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 55% | 79% | 54% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 14% | 39% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mufulira Wanderers | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 45.8% | 54.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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