Sat, Sep 20 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.19 (league 1.61) 0.20 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
81.4% 13.7% 2.5%
best score tips
2 - 0
22.0%
1 - 0
20.2%
3 - 0
16.1%
Score & goals probability table
Tlaxcala
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tepatitlán 0 9.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 20.2% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 22.0% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTepatitlánTlaxcala
Played55
Form73%47%
Attack85%38%
Defense77%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tepatitlán Tlaxcala
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%50%43%50%0%29%
Draws67%50%57%25%33%29%
Loses0%0%0%25%67%43%

Form: Tepatitlán: DDWWWDD • Tlaxcala: DLLLDWW

League goals

Metric Tepatitlán Tlaxcala
HATHAT
GF total4812426
GF avg1.32.01.71.00.70.9
GA total1344812
GA avg0.30.80.61.02.71.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTepatitlánTlaxcala
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%57%57%86%
1.543%0%29%57%
2.543%0%0%29%
3.514%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTepatitlánTlaxcala
HATHAT
Clean sheets213101
Failed to score112123

Penalties

MetricTepatitlánTlaxcala
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricTepatitlánTlaxcala
Wins30
Draws21
Losses03

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-42-1
Biggest losses0-23-0
Goals For3422
Goals Against1123

Model comparison

MetricTepatitlánTlaxcala
Form61%39%
Att69%31%
Def73%27%
Poisson Distribution91%9%
H2h64%36%
Goals57%43%
Total69.2%30.8%

Advice: Winner : Tepatitlán

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ Bet365
Draw4.26 @ Pinnacle
Away5.55 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.31 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.76 @ 188Bet
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tepatitlán = 2.19 (league 1.61), Tlaxcala = 0.20 (league 1.06)

Tlaxcala
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tepatitlán 0 9.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 20.2% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 22.0% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 16.1% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 81.4% · Draw 13.7% · Away win 2.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1