Sun, Oct 12 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Morelos
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.61) 0.94 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.6% 26.1% 23.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.1%
1 - 1
12.3%
2 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Tapatío
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monarcas 0 8.7% 8.2% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 13.1% 12.3% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.8% 9.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.9% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMonarcasTapatío
Played55
Form27%7%
Attack86%43%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Monarcas Tapatío
HATHAT
Played4595510
Wins75%0%33%40%20%30%
Draws0%40%22%20%20%20%
Loses25%60%44%40%60%50%

Form: Monarcas: DWLWDWLLL • Tapatío: WWLDWLLDLL

League goals

Metric Monarcas Tapatío
HATHAT
GF total85138513
GF avg2.01.01.41.61.01.3
GA total414186612
GA avg1.02.82.01.21.21.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMonarcasTapatío
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%89%70%80%
1.556%56%40%30%
2.522%33%20%10%
3.50%11%0%0%
4.50%11%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMonarcasTapatío
HATHAT
Clean sheets101202
Failed to score123123

Penalties

MetricMonarcasTapatío
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricMonarcasTapatío
Wins12
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-03-01-3
Biggest losses0-25-01-32-1
Goals For3233
Goals Against2532

Model comparison

MetricMonarcasTapatío
Form80%20%
Att67%33%
Def39%61%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h25%75%
Goals30%70%
Total50.8%49.2%

Advice: Double chance : Monarcas or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.80 @ 188Bet
Draw3.97 @ Pinnacle
Away4.49 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.94 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ 188Bet
No2.20 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Monarcas = 1.49 (league 1.61), Tapatío = 0.94 (league 1.06)

Tapatío
0 1 2 3 4 5
Monarcas 0 8.7% 8.2% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
1 13.1% 12.3% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.8% 9.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
3 4.9% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.6% · Draw 26.1% · Away win 23.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1