Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 02:00 • Estadio Jalisco
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.20 (league 1.60) 2.12 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.0% 19.8% 36.6%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.2%
2 - 1
6.8%
1 - 2
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leones Negros UDG 0 1.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
1 2.9% 6.2% 6.6% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.2%
3 2.4% 5.0% 5.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.8%
4 1.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
5 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack63%50%
Defense13%13%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Leones Negros UDG Alebrijes de Oaxaca
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins40%20%30%0%40%20%
Draws40%20%30%20%20%20%
Loses20%60%40%80%40%60%

Form: Leones Negros UDG: LWWDDDLLWL • Alebrijes de Oaxaca: LLDLLLWLWD

League goals

Metric Leones Negros UDG Alebrijes de Oaxaca
HATHAT
GF total113145712
GF avg2.20.61.41.01.41.2
GA total861412820
GA avg1.61.21.42.41.62.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%90%70%90%
1.550%40%30%60%
2.510%10%10%30%
3.510%0%10%10%
4.50%0%0%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
HATHAT
Clean sheets101011
Failed to score033303

Penalties

MetricLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Wins21
Draws31
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-21-2—1-2
Biggest losses2-32-00-33-1
Goals For4242
Goals Against3253

Model comparison

MetricLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Form36%64%
Att56%44%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h85%15%
Goals71%29%
Total58.7%41.3%

Advice: Double chance : Leones Negros UDG or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.95 @ 188Bet
Away6.20 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.70 @ William Hill
No2.12 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.58 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Leones Negros UDG = 2.20 (league 1.60), Alebrijes de Oaxaca = 2.12 (league 1.06)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leones Negros UDG 0 1.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
1 2.9% 6.2% 6.6% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0%
2 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.1% 2.7% 1.2%
3 2.4% 5.0% 5.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.8%
4 1.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0.5%
5 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.0% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 36.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1