Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:00 • Ashton Gate Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.91 (league 1.64) 1.09 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.0% 30.6% 39.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.7%
0 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Durham W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bristol City W 0 13.5% 14.7% 8.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.3% 13.4% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 5.6% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBristol City WDurham W
Played44
Form50%33%
Attack33%33%
Defense53%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 1.35 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.85 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bristol City W Durham W
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins50%50%50%0%50%25%
Draws0%0%0%50%0%25%
Loses50%50%50%50%50%50%

Form: Bristol City W: LWWL • Durham W: WLLD

League goals

Metric Bristol City W Durham W
HATHAT
GF total325235
GF avg1.51.01.31.01.51.3
GA total257325
GA avg1.02.51.81.51.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBristol City WDurham W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%50%100%75%
1.525%50%25%50%
2.50%25%0%0%
3.50%25%0%0%
4.50%25%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBristol City WDurham W
HATHAT
Clean sheets112011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricBristol City WDurham W
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricBristol City WDurham W
Wins21
Draws00
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-10-2
Biggest losses1-25-11-22-1
Goals For2112
Goals Against2522

Model comparison

MetricBristol City WDurham W
Form60%40%
Att50%50%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h71%29%
Goals80%20%
Total58.5%41.5%

Advice: Double chance : Bristol City W or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.62 @ Bet365
Draw3.93 @ Pinnacle
Away5.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.00 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ Superbet
No2.00 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Bristol City W = 0.91 (league 1.64), Durham W = 1.09 (league 1.37)

Durham W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bristol City W 0 13.5% 14.7% 8.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%
1 12.3% 13.4% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 5.6% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.0% · Draw 30.6% · Away win 39.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1