Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.67)
1.72 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.9% | 23.8% | 53.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Crystal Palace W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sunderland W | 0 | 6.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Crystal Palace W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sunderland W -1.6, Crystal Palace W +44.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Sunderland W
vs
Crystal Palace W
Elo gapCrystal Palace W +47
Home / draw / away32% / 25% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3006
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3006
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1461.9 | 1544.1 |
| Form Elo | 1468.1 | 1579.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.1 | 1503.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1477.8 | 1540 |
| Defense Elo | 1468.1 | 1432.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.6 | +44.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Sunderland W last-5 Elo change: -1.6; Crystal Palace W last-5 Elo change: +44.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 87% |
| Attack | 21% | 42% |
| Defense | 74% | 84% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wins | 30% | 30% | 30% | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Draws | 40% | 20% | 30% | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Loses | 30% | 50% | 40% | 10% | 30% | 20% |
Sunderland WWDWDLDLLLLWWLWDLDWDL
Crystal Palace WLDWDDDLLWWWWWLWWWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 14 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 16 | 15 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 85% | 90% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 40% | 50% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sunderland W | Crystal Palace W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 28% | 72% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 40.5% | 59.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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