FA WSL — England
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 11:00 • Academy Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.76) 1.70 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.6% 23.9% 56.7%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.2%
1 - 1
11.3%
0 - 2
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Arsenal W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City W 0 7.8% 13.2% 11.2% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9%
1 6.6% 11.3% 9.6% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8%
2 2.8% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
3 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricManchester City WArsenal W
Played44
Form75%67%
Attack86%71%
Defense64%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 310 | 2.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 1.33 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 1 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Manchester City W Arsenal W
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins100%50%75%50%50%50%
Draws0%0%0%50%50%50%
Loses0%50%25%0%0%0%

Form: Manchester City W: LWWW • Arsenal W: WWDD

League goals

Metric Manchester City W Arsenal W
HATHAT
GF total66125510
GF avg3.03.03.02.52.52.5
GA total235213
GA avg1.01.51.31.00.50.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineManchester City WArsenal W
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%75%75%
1.575%25%50%0%
2.550%0%50%0%
3.550%0%50%0%
4.525%0%25%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricManchester City WArsenal W
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricManchester City WArsenal W
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricManchester City WArsenal W
Wins02
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-54-11-5
Biggest losses—2-1——
Goals For4545
Goals Against1211

Model comparison

MetricManchester City WArsenal W
Form53%47%
Att55%45%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total48.2%52.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Arsenal W

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.75 @ Bet365
Draw3.90 @ Pinnacle
Away2.40 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.24 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.63 @ Unibet
No2.45 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Manchester City W = 0.85 (league 1.76), Arsenal W = 1.70 (league 1.47)

Arsenal W
0 1 2 3 4 5
Manchester City W 0 7.8% 13.2% 11.2% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9%
1 6.6% 11.3% 9.6% 5.5% 2.3% 0.8%
2 2.8% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
3 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.6% · Draw 23.9% · Away win 56.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1