Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
St Helens Stadium
Expected Goals
1.72 (league 1.73)
0.34 (league 1.42)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.2% | 21.3% | 6.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.9%
2 - 0
18.9%
0 - 0
12.7%
Score & goals probability table
| West Ham W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Liverpool W | 0 | 12.7% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.9% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.9% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Liverpool W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 129 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Liverpool W +28.6, West Ham W +3.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Liverpool W
vs
West Ham W
Elo gapLiverpool W +129
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2982.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2982.9
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1538.2 | 1444.7 |
| Form Elo | 1553.9 | 1442.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500.4 | 1463.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1563.6 | 1513.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1475.9 | 1372.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.6 | +3.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Liverpool W last-5 Elo change: +28.6; West Ham W last-5 Elo change: +3.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 45% | 20% |
| Defense | 75% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Wins | 33% | 10% | 21% | 20% | 11% | 16% |
| Draws | 33% | 20% | 26% | 40% | 0% | 21% |
| Loses | 33% | 70% | 53% | 40% | 89% | 63% |
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League goals
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 11 | 18 | 29 | 20 | 21 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Liverpool W | West Ham W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 79% | 53% | 95% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 53% | 21% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 16% | 11% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 0% | 26% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Liverpool W | West Ham W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 83% | 17% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 73.8% | 26.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.80 @ Unibet
Draw4.10 @ Bet365
Away4.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.81 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.10 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.10 @ Unibet
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League standings
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