Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 •
Leigh Sports Village
Expected Goals
1.17 (league 1.74)
0.76 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 45.6% | 30.5% | 23.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.0%
0 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Brighton W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Manchester United W | 0 | 14.5% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.0% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.0% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Manchester United W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 154 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Manchester United W -14.1, Brighton W +10.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Manchester United W
vs
Brighton W
Elo gapManchester United W +154
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo3180
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3180
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1649.3 | 1530.7 |
| Form Elo | 1648.9 | 1536.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1570.4 | 1494.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1673.4 | 1535.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1682.1 | 1546.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.1 | +10.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Manchester United W last-5 Elo change: -14.1; Brighton W last-5 Elo change: +10.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Attack | 24% | 41% |
| Defense | 71% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| Wins | 50% | 60% | 55% | 44% | 30% | 37% |
| Draws | 30% | 30% | 30% | 22% | 10% | 16% |
| Loses | 20% | 10% | 15% | 33% | 60% | 47% |
Manchester United WWWDWDWWLLWDDWWWWDWLD
Brighton WDLWWLLLDWWLLWLLLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 20 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 12 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Manchester United W | Brighton W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 65% | 74% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 20% | 26% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 15% | 16% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Manchester United W | Brighton W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 81% | 19% |
| Total | 63.8% | 36.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.65 @ William Hill
Draw4.40 @ Unibet
Away5.50 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.28 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.64 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.55 @ Unibet
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League standings
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