Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:00 • Campo sportivo di Montegiardino
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.89 (league 1.32) 2.95 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.2% 16.8% 51.9%
best score tips
1 - 2
6.5%
1 - 3
6.4%
2 - 2
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
Libertas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Murata 0 0.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5%
1 1.5% 4.4% 6.5% 6.4% 4.7% 2.8%
2 1.4% 4.2% 6.1% 6.0% 4.5% 2.6%
3 0.9% 2.6% 3.9% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7%
4 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMurataLibertas
Played44
Form8%33%
Attack15%31%
Defense38%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.54 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 27 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

7.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Murata Libertas
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins0%0%0%33%0%25%
Draws0%50%25%33%0%25%
Loses100%50%75%33%100%50%

Form: Murata: LDLL • Libertas: DLLW

League goals

Metric Murata Libertas
HATHAT
GF total022224
GF avg0.01.00.50.72.01.0
GA total448257
GA avg2.02.02.00.75.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMurataLibertas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%75%75%
1.50%75%25%25%
2.50%25%0%25%
3.50%0%0%25%
4.50%0%0%25%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMurataLibertas
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score202101

Penalties

MetricMurataLibertas
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricMurataLibertas
Wins00
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——1-0—
Biggest losses0-23-10-15-2
Goals For0112
Goals Against2315

Model comparison

MetricMurataLibertas
Form20%80%
Att33%67%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h71%29%
Goals75%25%
Total49.2%50.8%

Advice: Winner : Libertas

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.93 @ 1xBet
Draw3.65 @ Betano
Away3.46 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.98 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ Superbet
No2.07 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Murata = 1.89 (league 1.32), Libertas = 2.95 (league 1.35)

Libertas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Murata 0 0.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5%
1 1.5% 4.4% 6.5% 6.4% 4.7% 2.8%
2 1.4% 4.2% 6.1% 6.0% 4.5% 2.6%
3 0.9% 2.6% 3.9% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7%
4 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8%
5 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.2% · Draw 16.8% · Away win 51.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1