Campionato — San-Marino
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

San Marino Academy

—

Cailungo

Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.36) 1.41 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.4% 24.9% 36.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 1
8.5%
1 - 0
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
Cailungo
0 1 2 3 4 5
San Marino Academy 0 5.6% 8.0% 5.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
1 8.3% 11.7% 8.2% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.1% 8.5% 6.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

San Marino Academy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 68 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: San Marino Academy -23.6, Cailungo -32.4.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
San Marino Academy Elo 1339.2 · -23.6
vs
Cailungo Elo 1306.5 · -32.4
Elo gapSan Marino Academy +68
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2645.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2645.7
Elo home share 60%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric San Marino Academy Cailungo
Overall Elo1339.21306.5
Form Elo13381280.3
Home / Away Elo1399.11436.1
Attack Elo1379.11398.2
Defense Elo1325.91245.2
Last 5 Elo change-23.6-32.4

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. San Marino Academy last-5 Elo change: -23.6; Cailungo last-5 Elo change: -32.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSan Marino AcademyCailungo
Played55
Form7%0%
Attack5%26%
Defense53%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.819 | 3.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric San Marino Academy Cailungo
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins7%13%10%0%14%7%
Draws21%20%21%20%7%14%
Loses71%67%69%80%79%79%
San Marino AcademyDLLLLLLLDLLLDLWLLLLDWLDWLDLLL
CailungoLDWLLLLLLLDLLLLWLDLDLLLLLLLLL

League goals

Metric San Marino Academy Cailungo
HATHAT
GF total111122111122
GF avg0.80.70.80.70.80.8
GA total342559353570
GA avg2.41.72.02.32.52.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSan Marino AcademyCailungo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%93%62%93%
1.514%59%14%72%
2.57%38%0%41%
3.57%7%0%14%
4.50%7%0%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSan Marino AcademyCailungo
HATHAT
Clean sheets112022
Failed to score510155611

Penalties

MetricSan Marino AcademyCailungo
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricSan Marino AcademyCailungo
Wins11
Draws11
Losses77

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-4—0-2
Biggest losses0-53-01-66-0
Goals For2422
Goals Against5366

Model comparison

MetricSan Marino AcademyCailungo
Form100%0%
Att17%83%
Def68%32%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h38%62%
Goals38%62%
Total42.4%57.6%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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