Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 13:00 • Centro Sportivo Al Maglio
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.89) 0.89 (league 1.57)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.6% 26.3% 22.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.8%
1 - 1
12.3%
2 - 0
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
Paradiso
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugano II 0 9.3% 8.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.8% 12.3% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.2% 9.1% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLugano IIParadiso
Played55
Form33%27%
Attack44%50%
Defense39%11%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.216 | 3.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lugano II Paradiso
HATHAT
Played4610459
Wins0%50%30%25%20%22%
Draws100%0%40%50%20%33%
Loses0%50%30%25%60%44%

Form: Lugano II: LDWWDLWDDL • Paradiso: LWDDLWLLD

League goals

Metric Lugano II Paradiso
HATHAT
GF total4111514721
GF avg1.01.81.53.51.42.3
GA total41822141428
GA avg1.03.02.23.52.83.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLugano IIParadiso
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%90%89%100%
1.550%60%67%89%
2.520%30%33%67%
3.50%20%11%33%
4.50%10%11%22%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLugano IIParadiso
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score112011

Penalties

MetricLugano IIParadiso
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricLugano IIParadiso
Wins21
Draws22
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-37-52-3
Biggest losses6-02-45-0
Goals For2373
Goals Against2655

Model comparison

MetricLugano IIParadiso
Form56%44%
Att47%53%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h29%71%
Goals40%60%
Total48.7%51.3%

Advice: Double chance : Lugano II or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.33 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away2.84 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.43 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ Pinnacle
No2.62 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lugano II = 1.48 (league 1.89), Paradiso = 0.89 (league 1.57)

Paradiso
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugano II 0 9.3% 8.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.8% 12.3% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.2% 9.1% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 5.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.6% · Draw 26.3% · Away win 22.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1