Serie B — Italy
Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 16:15 • Stadio San Nicola
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.44) 0.27 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.1% 38.9% 10.9%
best score tips
0 - 0
30.8%
1 - 0
27.8%
2 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Mantova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 30.8% 8.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.8% 7.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 12.5% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBariMantova
Played55
Form33%13%
Attack38%25%
Defense44%31%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.811 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bari Mantova
HATHAT
Played358448
Wins33%0%13%25%0%13%
Draws67%20%38%25%25%25%
Loses0%80%50%50%75%63%

Form: Bari: LDLLDDWL • Mantova: LWLLLLDD

League goals

Metric Bari Mantova
HATHAT
GF total448516
GF avg1.30.81.01.30.30.8
GA total3121510414
GA avg1.02.41.92.51.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBariMantova
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%100%63%88%
1.525%63%13%38%
2.50%25%0%25%
3.50%0%0%13%
4.50%0%0%13%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBariMantova
HATHAT
Clean sheets000011
Failed to score022033

Penalties

MetricBariMantova
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricBariMantova
Wins11
Draws20
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—2-1—
Biggest losses—3-01-52-1
Goals For2221
Goals Against1352

Model comparison

MetricBariMantova
Form71%29%
Att60%40%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution81%19%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total66.8%33.3%

Advice: Double chance : Bari or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.29 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.45 @ 188Bet
Away3.80 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.06 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.94 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.78 @ Pinnacle
No2.10 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Bari = 0.90 (league 1.44), Mantova = 0.27 (league 1.09)

Mantova
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 30.8% 8.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.8% 7.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 12.5% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.1% · Draw 38.9% · Away win 10.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1