Serie B — Italy
Fri, Dec 19 2025 • 19:30 • Stadio San Nicola
Match Finished
1 - 2
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.46) 1.01 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.0% 31.7% 37.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
15.1%
0 - 0
15.0%
1 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Catanzaro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 15.0% 15.1% 7.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.4% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBariCatanzaro
Played55
Form20%67%
Attack20%60%
Defense40%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Bari Catanzaro
HATHAT
Played79169716
Wins43%0%19%44%29%38%
Draws43%44%44%44%43%44%
Loses14%56%38%11%29%19%

Form: Bari: LDLLDDWLWWDLLDDD • Catanzaro: DDDDDDLLWWWLDWWW

League goals

Metric Bari Catanzaro
HATHAT
GF total951414822
GF avg1.30.60.91.61.11.4
GA total7182511718
GA avg1.02.01.61.21.01.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBariCatanzaro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%75%75%75%
1.519%44%44%31%
2.50%25%19%6%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBariCatanzaro
HATHAT
Clean sheets224224
Failed to score055134

Penalties

MetricBariCatanzaro
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricBariCatanzaro
Wins23
Draws26
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-21-3
Biggest losses2-35-00-12-1
Goals For2233
Goals Against3532

Model comparison

MetricBariCatanzaro
Form23%77%
Att25%75%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h50%50%
Goals47%53%
Total39.0%61.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Catanzaro

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.62 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ William Hill
Away2.36 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ SBO
Under 2.51.70 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.99 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Bari = 0.89 (league 1.46), Catanzaro = 1.01 (league 1.09)

Catanzaro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bari 0 15.0% 15.1% 7.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.4% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.0% · Draw 31.7% · Away win 37.2%

vtt 23 , vtd1