Serie B — Italy
Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 16:15 • Stadio Euganeo
Match Finished
2 - 0
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.44) 1.66 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.3% 23.8% 62.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.2%
0 - 2
14.2%
1 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Modena
0 1 2 3 4 5
Padova 0 10.4% 17.2% 14.2% 7.9% 3.3% 1.1%
1 6.3% 10.5% 8.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.7%
2 1.9% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPadovaModena
Played55
Form53%20%
Attack38%38%
Defense69%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Padova Modena
HATHAT
Played8101810818
Wins13%40%28%50%38%44%
Draws63%20%39%20%38%28%
Loses25%40%33%30%25%28%

Form: Padova: LDLWWDLWDDDLLWDWDL • Modena: WDWWWDWDWLWDDLLWLL

League goals

Metric Padova Modena
HATHAT
GF total9817161026
GF avg1.10.80.91.61.31.4
GA total119209615
GA avg1.40.91.10.90.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePadovaModena
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%78%78%61%
1.522%28%50%22%
2.50%6%17%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPadovaModena
HATHAT
Clean sheets044437
Failed to score235134

Penalties

MetricPadovaModena
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total37

Streaks

MetricPadovaModena
Wins23
Draws32
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-23-01-3
Biggest losses0-23-11-21-0
Goals For2233
Goals Against2322

Model comparison

MetricPadovaModena
Form73%27%
Att50%50%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution26%74%
H2h29%71%
Goals17%83%
Total43.2%56.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Modena

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.59 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.29 @ Pinnacle
Away2.05 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.68 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ William Hill
No1.86 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Padova = 0.61 (league 1.44), Modena = 1.66 (league 1.10)

Modena
0 1 2 3 4 5
Padova 0 10.4% 17.2% 14.2% 7.9% 3.3% 1.1%
1 6.3% 10.5% 8.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.7%
2 1.9% 3.2% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.3% · Draw 23.8% · Away win 62.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1